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Questions:
1. What do you expect Donald Trump will do if he loses elections, especially if it will be pretty close? Any chance he will peacefully concede, or not really, and what will his supporters do?
2. What do you expect Kamala Harris will do if she loses elections just by a whisker? So you think she may challenge the results, or not really, and what will his supporters do?
Answers:
Robert Y. Shapiro, Professor of Government, Columbia University
1. It is widely perceived that Trump will not concede but once again declare that the election was fraudulent, and his supporters will take their cues from him. But this time since the Capital will be well protected and Biden, not Trump is president, any protest and potential for violence will be in the state capitals where Trump lost the electoral votes. Also there may be an effort to get electoral votes thrown out/not certified and new electors selected, even though this would violate the Constitution and the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act — in an attempt to negate the electoral vote and have the election decided in the House of Representatives. The courts may have to sort all this out.
2. If the vote is by a whisker, she may call for a recount in particular states which would make sense and should not be controversial. But if the final vote is decided but still very close, she will concede the election and her supporters will accept that. This is the big difference between the Democrats and Trump and his supporters.
David Redlawsk, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Delaware
1. I do not expect Trump to concede, no matter how much he loses by. He is too invested in the claims of fraud, as are his supporters. Even so, if he loses, I do not expect his efforts to claim victory will work. Changes have been made since 2020 in terms of process, and officials are much more aware of the possibilities than they were then. Unfortunately, there could be some violent responses amongst his supporters, but I think the system will hold.
2. If it becomes clear that she has lost, Harris will concede. There is no doubt of this in my mind. However, if the election is very close, I am sure they will first use all legal means to ensure that the result is accurate. I do not expect her campaign or her to attempt to generate anger and violence amongst her supporters, and I anticipate from the Trump campaign. Ultimately, she is running on the rule of law and appears committed to following it.
Robert Schmuhl, Professor of American Studies, University of Notre Dame
1. Donald Trump and his campaign have made it very clear that they will vigorously challenge the results if he isn’t declared the winner. What happened after the 2020 election will seem like child’s play compared to the massive and coordinated effort we might see this year. The former president has repeatedly said the only way he can lose is through cheating. His supporters believe him, and they will do everything they can to make sure he returns to the White House. There’s worry about the possibility of violence, making America feel on edge.
2. Kamala Harris has assembled a team of lawyers and election experts to make sure the vote count is accurate and without unscrupulous activities. She and her campaign realize the extent to which the Trump campaign thinks the election can be–in their word–“rigged.” There’s little doubt that courts will become involved once ballots are cast. Will cases end up at the U.S. Supreme Court, as we saw in 2000? At this point, nobody knows.
Anne Cizmar, Professor of Government, Eastern Kentucky University
I think that there’s a good chance of a close election result. In that case, at the very least, I expect there to be a delay in the final vote counts being released. This will create a tense atmosphere while the final vote counts are pending. I would also be expected that one or both candidates will file lawsuits regarding different aspects of the election in the event of a close result. Due to the U.S. following a system of federalism where power is dispersed among the states to run elections, there could be challenges and multiple lawsuits across different states pending for a while.
Whichever side loses, the supporters will be upset. I don’t expect an actual concession speech or anything from Trump if he loses. If Harris loses, I do expect that she will make a concession speech. Unless the election is a clear victory for one side or the other, I don’t think this will happen on election night.
This wouldn’t be the first time in recent U.S. history that a close election outcome took a while to be settled. In the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, there was a long delay in certifying the election results in Florida. Eventually the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Bush v. Gore and Bush won Florida’s Electoral College votes. At that time, both sides were willing to accept the court’s ruling and authority to decide. But, American is more polarized today than in 2000.
Darrell West, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution
Trump will contest the election if he loses. He already has talked about possible ballot fraud in Pennsylvania, which is likely to be the key state. It is unlikely he will concede. He still has not conceded that he lost the 2020 election and did not attend Biden’s inauguration. There will be lots of litigation from both sides, but if Harris loses, I would expect her to concede the election. Trump’s supporters won’t accept a loss under any circumstances and likely will protest that the system was rigged against him.
Filed under: Politics, United States, US politics | Tagged: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Politics, US politics, US presidential election 2024 |