Less than 560 days away from the midterm elections, both President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents are underwhelming in most polls.
The midterm elections may come down to which party is least unpopular when voters head to the polls in 2026.
Trump won’t be on the ballot then or, barring the repeal of the 22nd Amendment or a late-career run for an office besides the presidency, ever again. But Republicans will be defending their majorities in both houses of Congress, with major implications for the remainder of Trump’s second term.
A widely noticed Pew Research poll found Trump with a 40% job approval rating and 59% disapproving, his lowest second-term marks yet. But that April poll seems to be an outlier. The national RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump just 5 points underwater.
Nevertheless, Trump’s numbers on the economy and inflation have steadily eroded in recent weeks. The high cost of living specifically and the health of the economy in general were two of the main issues that helped him win the election last year.
The stock market has been volatile since Trump rolled out his tariffs, roiling retirement accounts. Tariff uncertainty may not be going away anytime soon.
At the same time, multiple polls last month found the Democratic Party’s favorability at record lows. A new poll of younger voters released on Wednesday showed just 23% approved of the job congressional Democrats were doing. That’s less than the numbers posted by Trump or congressional Republicans, though they weren’t especially popular either.
The 2026 Senate map looks unfavorable to Democrats. The math could become more challenging as Democratic incumbents keep retiring, with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) continuing this trend on Wednesday. Democrats actually lost Senate seats during the last anti-Trump wave election in 2018, though they added more than 40 seats in the House.
Some political analysts question whether there are enough competitive seats left to produce another true wave election. Democrats lost House seats during the pandemic election in 2020 and Republicans made only minor inroads while inflation was running at a 41-year high in 2022, although it was enough to win a narrow majority.
The Crystal Ball House ratings from earlier this month forecast that 209 seats were safe, likely, or leaning Democratic to 207 seats that were safe, likely, or leaning Republican with 19 toss-ups. There have been multiple wave elections favoring each party since 2000, but that may mean the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.
Elections in this polarized climate can be like the old joke about two friends being attacked by a bear in the woods. The first friend warns that it is impossible to outrun the bear. “I don’t have to outrun the bear,” the second friend replies. “I just have to outrun you.”
While beloved by his base, Trump has never been as broadly popular as some previous presidents. His popularity improved somewhat before the 2024 election, but exit polls found 53% of the electorate held an unfavorable view of him on the same day he won the popular vote for the first time in three tries. Trump has won two of the last three presidential elections and was competitive in his one loss.
Trump’s connection to his base may be stronger than ever, with the percentage of voters with a positive view of the country’s direction on the rise. But many swing voters are rattled and Republicans have struggled to turn out his lower-propensity voters when he is not at the top of the ticket.
Democrats can realistically hope that if voters are jittery about the economy and their base is more motivated to vote now that Trump is back in power, they can win elections without reevaluating their least popular policy positions.
Leading Democrats are reluctant to pivot to the center on transgender issues or immigration, with many blue-state lawmakers believing that Trump is overreaching in both areas.
Republicans didn’t really reposition themselves much after their losses to Barack Obama but still had two strong midterm elections during his presidency. The GOP controlled at least one House of Congress for most of Obama’s presidency. Their biggest adjustment came after Trump won the nomination over the party establishment’s opposition in 2016 and began appealing to more working-class voters.
THE LEFT IS BACK IN RESISTANCE MODE
Democrats have been divided over whether they should change direction to win back the voters they lost to Trump in 2024 or fight him on all fronts and benefit from his perceived failures.
Depending on which party wins the unpopularity contest, maybe Democrats won’t have to choose.