Watching oligarch Elon Musk and President Donald Trump break up in real time on Thursday afternoon, with both men using their preferred mediums ― Musk on the social media site he owns, Trump while talking to television cameras ― was deeply satisfying for Democrats who have come to loathe both men. Popcorn emojis are plentiful.
Emotional satisfaction, however, might be all Democrats get out of the divorce between Trump and his biggest financial supporter, which gets nastier by the minute. The duo’s big, not-so-beautiful breakup is unlikely to significantly harm Trump politically, or meaningfully slow down congressional Republicans’ plodding march toward passing the tax-cutting, Medicaid-slashing, deficit-exploding legislation Musk labeled an “abomination” last week.
Let’s start with a basic fact: Musk was very unpopular, and was not doing much to help Trump politically. His favorability stood at just 40%, with 54% of Americans holding an unfavorable opinion, notably worse than Trump’s 46% job approval. GOP operatives have long been skeptical the quarter-billion dollars Musk spent on the 2024 election, and which Musk claimed on Thursday were the actual reason Trump won, actually did much to help Republicans reclaim the White House. (In fact, Republicans were ready to scapegoat Musk if Trump lost.)
“Musk did damage to Trump by doing politically unpopular things and by drawing attention off of Trump and making it so when voters think about Trump, they’re going to think about Elon,” said Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster at Slingshot Strategies who studied the ways Musk created vulnerabilities for Trump. “The first few months of an administration can really define how voters feel about it, and Musk was so closely associated with the first weeks and months of this administration.”
So breaking up with Musk is an opportunity for Trump to cast off a toxic political appendage known for unpopular policies like attacking Social Security and enacting indiscriminate federal job cuts. The amputation is unlikely to totally work, but he could make it so both he and other GOP leaders aren’t held responsible for Musk’s unpopular positions in the future.
“Trump is looking for a really loud breakup,” Roth Smith predicted. “He’s hoping voters will draw some distance between him and Elon. Trump is going to be really dramatic about this.”
At the same time, while Musk’s critiques of the bill as a budget-buster ― it would add nearly $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office ― may give a rhetorical boost to members seeking deeper cuts, like Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), Republicans seemed mostly inclined to shrug off his critiques.
“Oh, I don’t care. He’s got an opinion,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Ark.), a man generally willing to upset Republican leaders, said of Musk earlier this week.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) similarly said lawmakers are reacting to Musk’s broadsides against the legislation with shrugs and eye rolls. “He’s an entertaining fellow, I just don’t base my policy positions on his tweets,” he told HuffPost.
Musk does not totally lack leverage over House and Senate Republicans. On the social media site he owns, he reminded them Trump’s presidency will end in a short 3 1/2 years, while noting he would be around for another 40 (Musk is 53). He’s also demonstrated a willingness to spend money on politics, even if the effectiveness of that money ― both in the general election and in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year ― is up in the air.
But longtime GOP aides said a contest between Trump and Musk for the hearts and minds of congressional Republicans was no contest at all.
“Let there be no doubt who congressional Rs are going to side with in this skirmish. We don’t need to play the ‘will Elon sink the bill?’ game,” Brendan Buck, a former aide to House Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, wrote on social media.
For all the social media bombast and meme-driven gallows humor of the Musk-Trump split, the story of the South African-born billionaire’s apparent ouster is much less novel than it might seem.
“I think Elon Musk is learning a lesson that many people who enter politics as relative novices sometimes take a while to learn,” Roth Smith said. “Inertia is a powerful force in American politics, and people who seek to upend the normal state of affairs in American politics often find they are the ones who are upended after, as President Trump put it, patience is worn thin.”
Igor Bobic and Arthur Delaney contributed reporting.