CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday declared that most Americans would point their fingers at President Donald Trump should a recession occur in the next 12 months.
“If Donald Trump believes that he can somehow escape blame if there is, in fact, a recession, I’m here for a reality check,” Enten told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.
Enten, who recently argued that most Americans weren’t “buying” what Trump was selling on the economy, turned to a new CNBC survey where a “clear majority” of Americans — 52% — said they’d blame Trump “a lot or quite a bit” should a recession go down in the next 12 months.
This is compared to 32% of respondents who indicated that they’d blame the president “a little or not at all” for a recession in the same time frame.
“The majority of the American public says that the buck will stop at the White House, stop at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and Donald Trump will not, in fact, be able to escape blame if there is in fact a recession,” said Enten of Trump, who has blamed Joe Biden for passing an “economic catastrophe” onto him.
Amid turmoil caused by Trump’s tariffs, Enten noted that the S&P 500 — which was created in 1957 — dropped the most under Trump, more than any president at this point in their presidency.
“And, indeed, it is not anywhere close, folks, it’s not anywhere close,” he added.
The next largest drop of the S&P 500 at this point in a presidency occurred under former President George W. Bush, who saw the figure drop 7% in 2001.
“No other elected president at this point in their presidency saw a drop of 5% or more. So Donald Trump is on a planet all by himself, a planet you do not want to be on,” he said.
Enten went on to note that Goldman Sachs, Reuters, Polymarket and JPMorgan have predicted a chance of somewhere between 45% to 60% that a recession happens in 2025 or in the next 12 months.
“There’s basically a 50-50 chance of a recession at this point. And that is way up from where we were at the beginning of the Trump presidency when the numbers, simply put, weren’t anywhere near this,” he said.